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West Bank Outposts – summary of 2006
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Dror Etkes and Hagit Ofran

Building continues in a large portion of the settlements on both sides of the separation fence's route (see table below). This fundamental fact does not indicate an intention, (either unilateral or in the framework of negotiations), to withdraw from any part of the West Bank. The affair involving the Maskiyot Settlement, is apparently the most outright expression of the Olmert-Peretz's government's utter lack of consistent and long-term policy regarding the future of Israeli control of the West Bank and by implication, regarding Israeli policy vis-à-vis the future of the settlements.

Number of Changes referring to construction, road building, erection of trailers, etc. seen during 2006 is as follows:

Number of Settlements
During 2006, there was no change in the number of official settlements (with the exception of the Maskiyot affair, and not including the outposts), and it held steady at 121, which had been the number of official settlements since implementation of the "Disengagement Plan" in August 2005.

Number of Settlers
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, the number of settlers at the beginning of 2006 was approximately 247,300.  To date, the Central Bureau of Statistics, which is the official source of data pertaining to such matters in Israel, has not yet published official statistics regarding the number of settlers true to the end of 2006. However, Haaretz recently reported that according to data from the Ministry of the Interior, at the end of 2006 some 268,000 Israelis were living in the settlements (these numbers do not include the number of Israelis living in East Jerusalem, whose number is estimated to be some 200,000).  Even if one were to make the reasonable assumption that the final numbers will be less than those of the Interior Ministry (as is usually the case), there is still a significant increase of 5% in the number of settlers. This 5%-6% growth in the rates would constitute a continuation of the trend towards a population increase in the settlements since 2001. It is important to note that annual growth at this rate is much greater than the growth registered in each of the other districts in Israel (the Jerusalem district is the second, but with a growth rate of only 2.2%), and from the overall growth of the Israeli population, which stood at 1.8% during 2005. See here.

Building Tenders
During 2006, tenders were publicized for 952 housing units in the settlements. All of the tenders were publicized beginning in June 2006, that is, after the March elections. All of the tenders during this year were for construction planned in settlements located west of the separation fence's course, approved by the Israeli government on 30 April 2006. We note that during 2005, tenders were published for 1,184 housing units in the settlements.

Construction Starts
To date, the Central Bureau of Statistics has not yet published the overall number of building starts in the West Bank for 2006. The temporary numbers provided by the Central Bureau of Statistics in this category for the first three quarters of 2006 (that is, until the end of September) illustrate that the pace of building in the settlements has remained similar to that recorded for 2005, and that recorded in previous years. In this period, then, 1,272 building starts were recorded. This is in contrast to 1,727 during 2005 and 1,926 building starts in 2004. See chart (in Hebrew) here.
As stated, although these are not official numbers, it appears that there is no drastic change one way or another.

The Largest Building Sites
• Ma'ale Adumim (in addition to large high-rise projects, private homes are also being constructed in other parts of the settlement)
• Modi'in Illit
• Beitar Illit

Second Largest Building Sites
• Ariel
• Efrat
• Alfei Menashe (including construction of private homes within the settlement)
• Giv'at Ze'ev

Medium-sized Building Sites
• El'azar
• Karnei Shomron
• Kiryat Arba
• Alon (Kfar Adumim)
• Rosh Tzurim
• Nirit site (Alfei Menashe)
• Kedumim

Settlements with Private Building
• Har Adar
• Har Gilo
• South Giv'at Ze'ev – Mt. Shmuel
• Hashmonaim
• Keidar
• Barqan
• Sha'arei Tikva
• Elkana
• Beit Arye
• Neriya (Talmon)
• Sansana
• Nofei Prat (Kfar Adumim)
• Carmel
• Pedu'el
• Yakir
• Neve Daniel
• Oranit
• Mevo Horon
• Gitit
• Ofra
• Beit El
• Geva Binyamin
• Mitzpe Yericho
• Eli (15 new containers)
• Susiya (10 new containers)
• Tko'a

Special Security Areas  surrounding Settlements East of the Fence (area around the settlement designated to serve as a barrier for protecting the settlement, including an enclosure fence and a wide area of patrols. The SSA is usually some 100 meters from the outermost houses)
• Ateret
• Nahaliel
• Shavei Shomron
• Avnei Hefetz (preliminary construction work)
• Karmei Tzur
• Enav

Special Security Areas Slated to be Built in 2007, and surrounding Settlements East of the Fence (those we know of)
• Susiya
• Ro'i

Bypass Roads and Infrastructure
• During the course of the year, the building of the Za'atara bypass road has carried on at a slow pace. This bypass road is meant to connect the settlements of Tko'a and Nokdim (some 1,800 settlers in total), located southeast of the Bethlehem block, with Jerusalem. It should be noted that most of the road has already been paved for over a year, and Peace Now is unaware of the reasons that construction operations were at a standstill during most of the past year. Of late, perhaps due to pressure on the government by settlers in Gush Etzion, intensive construction on the road has been renewed.
• An additional road where large-scale construction is taking place is on the Jerusalem-Jericho Road No. 1, in the section from Mitzpe Yericho to the Almog Junction. The road is being doubled from a two-lane road to four lanes.
• Work on the Anatot – Mt. Scopus road has throughout the year. This road will have separate lanes for settlers and Palestinians. Its significance for Israel is the fact that Anatot settlers (some 800 people) will be able to commute to Jerusalem without having to travel outside the fence.
• Work over Ofarim – Beit Arye Bypass had resumed in the last weeks of the year 2006. this bypass road is planed to connect the 2 settlements (Ofarim & Beit Arye), which lately had become one local council. There is off course already on road who connects this 2 settlements but the existing road is going to be cutoff by the rout of the barrier which is constructed around the 2 settlements, which are planed to be enveloped by it. The new road is expected to continue farther north form Beit Arye, thought the exact plan is still not known to us in this time.

Benjamin Council Region
The Benjamin regional council, which contains the greatest number of settlements, continues to have the largest concentration of construction sites. It should be noted that the southeastern and western portions of the Binyamin Regional Council are located on lands that are 'to the west' of the fence's route (within the fence), while most of its lands are located east of the fence's route.

Ma'ale Adumim and E1 – "Breaking the Taboo"
Area E1 is located between Ma'ale Adumim and Mt. Scopus. Israel annexed this stretch of land and allocated it to the enormous jurisdictional area of the Ma'ale Adumim municipality, which has announced its intention to build thousands of housing units there. The aim of this construction is to connect Ma'ale Adumim to Jerusalem, thereby cutting off the northern parts of the West Bank from its southern parts and isolating East Jerusalem from the West Bank.
On the eve of the elections, Olmert authorized to begin building the police station in E1. The new building is intended to serve as police headquarters for the Judea and Samaria Region. It should be recalled that on April 26, 2006, Haaretz published a story never refuted by the authorities, that construction of the police headquarters is being financed by non-profit settlers' organizations that are working to receive in exchange the present police headquarters building in Ras al-Amud in East Jerusalem. Construction of the building is presently nearing conclusion. There is a grave concern that breaking the taboo against building in E1 will serve as an incentive for the government to now attempt to implement its plans to build a residential neighborhood in E1. All this is of course based in the well-known claim that the area is part of the "settlement block" that Israel plans to annex in the future, and regarding which "there is a consensus." And indeed, it appears that it is a matter of time and timing until some Israeli government tries to continue building in E1. At the same time, extensive construction work is continuing in the eastern and northeastern parts of Ma'ale Adumim.

Based on the extent of construction and its location relative to the map of the West Bank as a whole, our assessment is that the building in Ma'ale Adumim is one of the most significant settlement activities and most harmful to the chances of reaching an agreement based on two states for two peoples.

The Maskiyot Settlement Affair
During the last week of 2006, it was made public that Defense Minister Peretz had approved commencing the construction of thirty homes for several dozen families (some of which are Gush Katif evacuees), on a site some 200 meters from the settlement of Maskiyot, located in the northwestern part of the West Bank, approximately 15 kilometers from the Green Line and the course of the fence. Maskiyot, it should be noted, was established as an army outpost in the 1980s, and the decision to approve building there for civilians is tantamount to a decision to establish a new settlement. Only in the wake of political critique in Israel and abroad, did the Defense Minister decide in mid-January to freeze the authorization for building the aforesaid homes. It is highly doubtful whether there is a more blatant example of the Olmert government's neglect of all that pertains to the future of the settlements.
The Maskiyot affair raises a number of difficult questions regarding the discretion of the decision makers, both in terms of the initial approval granted to construct the houses there, and in terms of their cancellation which seems no less pathetic, particularly in light of the government's insistence that the step was legitimate and consistent with their policy.

Summary
The story of 2006, the first year of Olmert's term as prime minister, is in fact the story of two sides of a one-sided policy assumed by Israel in the West Bank: the settlements on one hand, and the fence on the other. Both maneuvers are the continuation of a unilateral policy of many years assumed by Israel regarding the political future of the West Bank, and we fear that it will continue to contribute to bringing Israel's relations with the Palestinians to a dead end.

 
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